Recap 10-4-12: Positive Gold Seasonality

~ globalmacrotrading

Commentary:

The early October thru early December period has historically been bullish for gold. The chart below shows the gold performance over the past several years, ex 2008:

The 1800 level has represented the high for over a year. I had initially expected a correction late last month as a result of extended speculative positioning, but there appears to be a strong underlying bid at the moment.

Notable:

  • ECB & BoE both kept policy unchanged as expected
  • Draghi:
  1. The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area continue to be on the downside
  2. It is thus essential that the resilience of banks continues to be strengthened where needed.
  3. No discussion of a rate cut, and no vote

Upcoming Data:

  • Fri: US Employment, CA Employment
  • Mon: Sentix Investor Confidence, AU Business Confidence
  • Tues: Japan Eco Watchers Survey, Alcoa kicks off US earnings season

Published by globalmacrotrading

I am a G20 Global Macro Portfolio Manager in NYC. My background includes stints at a major investment bank, a commodities market maker, and one of the world's largest global macro hedge funds.