Recap 5-16-13

~ globalmacrotrading

Commentary:

Lower inflation is positive for financial assets:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2013/05/disinflation.html

Fed Paper: We examine explanations for the secular decline in interstate migration since the 1980s. After showing that demographic and socioeconomic factors can account for little of this decrease, we present evidence suggesting that it is related to a downward trend in labor market transitions–i.e. a decline in the fraction of workers moving from job to job, changing industry, and changing occupation–that occurred over the same period.

Notable:

  • US Jobless Claims rose to 360k last week vs 330k exp and 323k prev.
  • Philly Fed declined to -5.2 vs +2 exp and 1.3 prev.
  • US Housing Starts declined to 853k s 970k exp and 1036k prev. Building Permits, however, rose to 1017k vs 941k exp and 902k prev
  • US CPI declined to 1.1% YoY in Apr vs 1.3% exp and 1.5% prev. The Core measure declined to 1.7% vs 1.8% exp and 1.9% prev
  • Japan real GDP rose 0.9% QoQ in 1Q vs 0.7% exp and 0.0% prev. The deflator was still negative, however, so the nominal QoQ figure was +0.4% vs -0.3% prev. Capital spending declined 0.7% q/q but private consumption increased 0.9%.
  • European Banking Authority is delaying its stress tests until 2014.
  • Gold demand slumped ~13% in Q1 to hit the lowest level in three years. Global demand fell to 963 metric tons in the quarter, from 1,107.5 tons a year earlier; investors sold a record 182.1 tons of gold through ETPs in the three months through March (Bloomberg)

Upcoming Data:

  • Fri : Canada CPI, Mexico GDP, US UMichigan Confidence
  • Mon: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, RBA Minutes
  • Tue: UK PPI, CPI, Dudley Speaks, Japan Merchandise Trade Balance, Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence
  • Wed: BoJ, BoE Minutes, Canada Retail Sales, Bernanke, US Existing Home Sales, China HSBC Flash Mfg PMI
  • Thu: EU PMI, UK Retail Sales, GDP, US Jobless Claims, Preliminary Markit Mfg PMI

Published by globalmacrotrading

I am a G20 Global Macro Portfolio Manager in NYC. My background includes stints at a major investment bank, a commodities market maker, and one of the world's largest global macro hedge funds.

2 thoughts on “Recap 5-16-13”

  1. you are completely biased – you comment on and post anything bullish, and ignore anything negative (like all the bad data day in day out)

    1. Hi Nico. Thanks for commenting.
      I suppose I may have been focusing more on the positives, although I’m not sure if that makes me completely biased. I have noted through most of 1Q how data and equity prices have decoupled. Like this post:

      Recap 4-24-13: Who Cares About Economic Data?

      Ultimately, my job involves going through the large amounts of daily news and data flow and figuring out what matters now, and what is likely to matter in the future, regardless of whether they are bullish or bearish. I think in that light, we can agree that equity markets are mostly focusing on the positives at this point. And futhermore, based on my reading of the tea leaves, this is likely to continue.

      I strive to keep a balanced and objective point of view, given that my job depends on it! This isn’t always easy in this twitter / editorials = news environment that we live in. But as I noted on 4/30, I couldn’t think of a single event that would drive a substantial market correction. And frankly, no one I spoke to gave me a good answer either. (that was not a black swan / tail event. Obviously a natural disaster or bad terrorist attack can happen at any time)

      So In response to your accusation, I supposed I’d say that I don’t fully agree. I note all the major daily data and news items, and in fact, list them in the Notable section, to make sure that I – and my readers – get the full picture.

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