Recap 5-03-13

~ globalmacrotrading

Commentary:

Decent jobless claims, payrolls, and housing data in the US is offsetting weak industrial production survey data. On balance, this suggests that we may not get the spring swoon that has occurred over the past few years. The long term SPX chart is quite bullish:

Notable:

  • US Payrolls rose 165k vs 140k exp and 88k prev. There were also sharp upward revisions to March and Feb figures. Unemployment declined to 7.5% vs 7.6% exp and prev
  • Weekly Earnings growth was inline at 1.9% YoY, but Hours dropped to 34.4 vs 34.6 exp and prev
  • US ISM non Mfg declined to 53.1 vs 54 exp and 54.4 prev
  • UK Services PMI declined to 52.9 vs 52.4 exp and prev
  • BoC named Stephen Poloz as the new Governor. He was previously the Export Development Group’s chief economist, so this is likely to be interpreted as a dovish choice.

Upcoming Data:

  • Mon: Australia Retail Sales, China HSBC Services PMI, Italy Services PMI, EU Retail Sales, CanadaBuilding Permits, Au Trade Balance
  • Tues: RBA
  • Wed: Canadian Housing Starts, China CPI, Australia Employment
  • Thu: UK IP, BoE, Canada New House Price Index, US Jobless Claims

Published by globalmacrotrading

I am a G20 Global Macro Portfolio Manager in NYC. My background includes stints at a major investment bank, a commodities market maker, and one of the world's largest global macro hedge funds.

2 thoughts on “Recap 5-03-13”

    1. Great question.
      Rates differentials had had a declining impact on the cross for over two years now. While that can certainly reverse, with the ‘apparent’ end of macro economic shocks, there is good reason to believe that market participants will be willing to project economic trends further. And on that basis, the original bearish AUDCAD thesis still holds, IMO. The trigger is likely to be when foreign miners in Australia begin to repatriate their earnings, which will likely be later this year or in 2014.

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