Recap 3-08-13

~ globalmacrotrading

Commentary:

Some interesting charts I saw today:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2013/03/rate-traps-and-mortgage-twists.html


http://moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2013/3/8/is-strong-us-corporate-borrowing-bearish-for-yield-spreads.html

Notable:

  • US Payrolls gapped to 236k in Feb vs 165k exp and 157k prev. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.7% in Feb vs 7.9% exp and prev, with the participation rate down 10bps. Average hours ticked higher, to 34.5 vs 34.4 exp and prev.
  • US Bank stress test results were mostly in line. Citi did a bit better than expected
  • Canadian Unemployment was stable at 7.0% vs 7.1% exp, as the participation rate increased 10bps. Employment jumped 50.7k in Feb vs 8k ex and -21.9k prev.
  • Canadian housing starts increased to 180.7k vs 175k exp and 160.6k prev
  • Banxico cut 50bps as a one off, and was implemented to recognize the long term achievements in inflation control.
  • Japan Eco Watchers Outlook improved to 57.7 in Feb vs 56.5 prev
  • The Fed may pledge to never sell any balance sheet assets – Reuters
  • “The overall number of homes listed for sale nationwide on Zillow was down 16.6 percent year-over-year in late February. The supply of for-sale listings continues to dry up, driven in part by potential sellers trapped in negative equity and homeowners who won’t sell out of fear they won’t be able to find a suitable home to buy later.”

Upcoming Data:

  • Weekend: China Data
  • Mon: German Trade Balance, RICS House Price Balance, Australia Business Confidence
  • Tue: US Retail Sales, Oil Inventories, Australia Employment
  • Wed: French Employment, US Retail Sales, Oil Inventories, AU Employment
  • Thu: Canada New Housing Price Index, US Jobless Claims,
  • Fri: EU CPI, US Empire Mfg

Published by globalmacrotrading

I am a G20 Global Macro Portfolio Manager in NYC. My background includes stints at a major investment bank, a commodities market maker, and one of the world's largest global macro hedge funds.