Recap 12-7-12

~ globalmacrotrading

Commentary:

None

Notable:

  • The ECB’s Makuch said there was a very serious debate on the interest rate at 0.75% in the policy meeting. Several banks think the ECB cuts rates in the first quarter. Bloomberg ran a headline this morning stating that the majority of the ECB’s governing council is said to support a rate cut.
  • US Payrolls declined to 146k vs 85k exp and 171k prev. Unemployment declined to 7.7% vs 7.9% exp and prev. Household employment declined -122k, but the participation rate declined back to 63.6% vs 63.8% prev
  • UMichigan Consumer Confidence dropped to 74.5 in Dec vs 82 exp and 82.7 prev
  • Canada Employment jumped 59.3k in Nov vs 10k exp and 1.8k prev. Strength in full time employment drove the improvement. Canadian Unemployment Rate declined to 7.2% vs 7.4% exp and prev, with an unchanged participation rate.

Upcoming Data:

  • Mon: China Data, Japan Current Account, Eco Watchers Survey, German Trade Balance, EU Sentix Investor Confidence, Canada Housing Starts
  • Tue: German Zew, USDA Ag report
  • Wed: UK Jobless Claims, Swiss Zew, EU IP, FOMC, FOMC SEP, Bernanke Speaks
  • Thu: SNB, Canada New Housing Price Index, US Retail Sales, PPI, Jobless Claims
  • Fri: EU PMI, EU CPI, USCPI, US Markit Preliminary PMI

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I am a G20 Global Macro Portfolio Manager in NYC. My background includes stints at a major investment bank, a commodities market maker, and one of the world's largest global macro hedge funds.