Recap 2-7-12

~ globalmacrotrading

Main Items:

  • RBA kept rates unchanged vs 25bp cut expected.

Overseas:

  • Greece has agreed to lay off 15K public sector workers by the end of ’12. The three parties in the coalition government were apparently close to a deal that would cut ~20% off the country’s minimum wage. Leaders are also near a deal to cut pension benefits by ~20%.

Commentary:

US consumer credit surged ~20bn for a second month in a row, driven by non-revolving, student loans. Aggregate consumer credit growth is now close to prior cycle averages. This chart of the breakdown of consumer credit growth shows how much the non-revolving category is contributing to re-leveraging:


As a result, the student loan outstanding per unemployed has increased sharply over the past couple years:

Published by globalmacrotrading

I am a G20 Global Macro Portfolio Manager in NYC. My background includes stints at a major investment bank, a commodities market maker, and one of the world's largest global macro hedge funds.