Recap 1-31-12

~ globalmacrotrading

Main Items:

  • Chicago PMI declined to 60.2 in Jan vs 63 exp and 62.2 prev
  • Consumer Confidence declined to 61.1 in Jan vs 68 exp and 64.5 prev
  • ISM’s annual revisions had the Dec ISM print down to 53.1 from 53.9, and the Nov print to 52.5 from 52.7
  • EU Banks are expected to double or triple their participation in the Feb LTRO – FT
  • Japan’s finance minister issued a fresh warning Tuesday that he will take "decisive steps" if speculators push the yen up too sharply
  • Chinese money-market rates plunged by the most since Jul after Beijing added the most cash to the financial system in ~4 yrs. The PBOC injected ~$75B into the financial system.

Overseas:

  • EU Unemployment increased to 10.4% in Dec as exp vs 10.3% prev
  1. Italian Unemployment increased to 8.9% in Dec vs 8.7% exp and 8.6% prev
  2. German unemployment declined to 6.7% in Jan vs 6.8% exp and prev

Japanese Jobless Rate increased to 4.6% in Dec vs 4.5% exp and prev

AU NAB Business Confidence improved to 3 from 2 in Dec

Commentary:

Despite the weaker than expected Chicago PMI today, the strong prints in other regional manufacturing indices earlier this month suggests that we could see a 56 handle ISM print tomorrow, vs the 54.5 expected.

Published by globalmacrotrading

I am a G20 Global Macro Portfolio Manager in NYC. My background includes stints at a major investment bank, a commodities market maker, and one of the world's largest global macro hedge funds.