Recap 2015-02-17

Commentary:

First, if you haven’t already, take a look at what I wrote on Friday. Topical, IMO.

‏@RobertJShiller tweeted My CAPE (cyclically adjusted price earnings) ratio reached 27.60 at close of market today, passing 2007 high.

There are three potential reactions to this

  1. Holy crap, it’s really high, it’s time to sell / short
  2. This time it’s different
  3. The assumption that the CAPE metric is mean reverting to a static number is based on flawed premises

Notable:

  • AP: Greece is considering requesting an extension to its loan agreement, government officials said Tuesday, in an effort to reach a last-minute deal with the country’s European creditors and avoid the danger of a euro exit. The country would submit the request before Friday, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity pending the formal announcement. They stressed the request would not be for an extension of Greece’s bailout agreement, which includes strict cost-cutting measures as conditions for rescue loans.
  • Japan GDP improved to 2.2% QoQ SAAR, vs 3.7% exp. The previous print was revised from -2.3% from -1.9%
  • UK CPI declined to 0.3% YoY vs 0.4% exp and 0.5% prev
  • German Zew improved to 53 vs 55 exp and 48.4 prev
  • US Empire Mfg declined to 7.8 vs 8 exp and 9.95 prev
  • NAHB Survey declined to 55 vs 58 exp and 57 prev
  • Troubled Chinese developer Kaisa Group on Monday disclosed debts totaling more than $10B, far beyond what it had previously revealed.
  • Apple is working on building an Apple electronic vehicle. The Journal says while the firm is several years and billions away from bringing the product to market, and may not even proceed with the commercialization of an automobile, all signs point to Apple being serious about the opportunity.

Upcoming:

  • Wed: UK Employment, Earnings, BoE Minutes, US Housing Starts, PPI, FOMC minutes,
  • Thu: FranceCPI, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Oil Inventories
  • Fri: Japan PMI, EU PMI, UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales, MexicoGDP, US Markit PMI
  • Mon: German IFO, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, US Existing Home Sales
  • Tue: US Markit US Service PMI, Humphery-Hawkins, US Consumer Confidence, China HSBC Mfg PMI
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