Recap 2015-02-10


Interesting charts from the Barclays commodities team:


  • The EU Commission is said to propose a compromise plan for Greece. They will propose a 6-month extension of the country’s bailout program. The plan to be the platform for Eurogroup discussions tomorrow. The EU to suggest a primary surplus to GDP ratio between 1.5-2.0%. They would propose a reorganization of Troika and Greece must provide specific measures in return. The ECB would begin accepting Greek collateral once again should Athens agree to this proposal. It’s worth noting that Greece PM Tsipras has been adamant in opposing any extension in the Greek bailout program. The European Commission has come out and denied this saying there is no formal proposal for Greece but talks are intensive. h/t Jordan
  • US NFIB Survey declined to 97.9 vs 101 exp and 100.4 prev
  • US Jolts data shows another rise in the number of job openings. The ratio of the number of Unemployed to Job openings is now back to late 2005 levels:
  • Australia NAB Business Confidence improved to 3 from 2 prev
  • UK IP declined -0.2% MoM vs -0.1% exp
  • China CPI declined to +0.8% vs 1.0% exp. PPI declined to -4.3% vs -3.8% exp
  • The Fed’s George said it was a mistake to rely on regulations alone to thwart bubbles and thinks mild rate increases early in a business cycle could help restrain excess.


  • Wed: US Oil Inventories, UK RICS Housing Balance, Australia Employment,
  • Thu: BoE Inflation Report, US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims
  • Fri: EU GDP, US UMichigan Sentiment
  • Mon : US holiday, NZ House Sales, Retail Sales, Japan GDP, RBA minutes
  • Tue: UK CPI, German Zew, US Empire Mfg, NAHB Survey