Recap 2015-02-06

Commentary:

Interesting:

http://www.newyorker.com/science/maria-konnikova/idea-happened-memory-recollection

http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/02/syriza-and-the-french-indemnity-of-1871-73/

Notable:

  • US Employment was very strong. Jan payrolls up 257k vs 228k exp. But the Dec and Nov prints were revised up a combined 147k, to 329k and 423k respectively. The Unemployment print ticked up to 5.7% vs 5.6% exp and prev, but for ‘good’ reasons. The participation rate rose to 62.9% vs 62.7% exp and prev; household employment jumped up by 759k vs 250k exp. Hourly earnings were also very string, rising to 2.2% YoY vs 1.9% exp, with last month’s print revised up to 1.9% vs 1.7% prev
  • Canada Employment was also very strong. Employment rose 35.4k vs 5k exp, driven by part time employment. The prior figure was revised down by -7k, however. The Unemployment rate was stable at 6.6% vs 6.7% exp. The participation rate declined to 65.7 as exp vs 65.9 previously
  • The RBA cuts projections for 2015 GDP to 2.25%-3.25% from 2.5%-3.5% previously. The inflation forecast was cut to 2%-3% from 2.5%-3.5%.
  • It looks like the only ways that the Greek government can avoid default and get through to the end of May is to either conclude the existing EFSF program and agree on a new one or negotiate a reprofiling of the IMF SBA liabilities due in the coming months. If IMF obligations through end May were reprofiled, that would ease the cash flow pressure on the government by over €3 bn. JPM
  • Feb 25th is the date that Greece is expected to run out of money, assuming no bailout extension

Upcoming:

  • Mon: China Trade Balance, Japan Eco Watchers Survey, Canada Housing Starts, Australia NAB Business Confidence
  • Tue: UKIP, US NFIB Survey,
  • Wed: US Oil Inventories, UK RICS Housing Balance, Australia Employment,
  • Thu: BoE Inflation Report, US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims
  • Fri: EU GDP, US UMichigan Sentiment
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