Recap 2015-01-30

Commentary:

None. Apologies for the lack of commentary as of late – hopefully I’ll get some time to expound next week.

Notable:

  • Chicago PMI improved to 59.4 vs 57.5 exp and 58.8 prev
  • US 4Q GDP was revised down to 2.6% vs 3.0% exp and 5.0% initially. A worse trade balance was the main driver for the miss.
  • Employment Cost Index slowed to 0.6% as exp vs 0.7% prev
  • Canada GDP declined -0.2% MoM vs 0.0% exp
  • UK Consumer Confidence improved to +1 from -2 exp and -4 prev
  • EU CPI declined -0.6% vs -0.5% exp. The Core figure slowed to +0.5% vs +0.7% prev as services inflation was weak
  • EU Unemployment declined to 11.4% vs 11.5% exp and prev
  • Japan Jobless Rate declined to 3.4% vs 3.5% exp and prev
  • Japan core CPI was stable at 2.1% as exp.
  • Visa quantifies impact to consumer spending from lower gas prices on the call last night: “US fuel prices are down ~30% since June. The drop amounts to ~$60/month for the avg. consumer according to our survey. Approximately 50% of the savings are being saved, 25% is being used to pay down debt & ~25% is being spent in other discretionary categories including grocery, clothing & restaurants. As we look forward, we would anticipate the savings will accumulate & ultimately we’ll see more spend in the discretionary categories including higher ticket items (i.e. home improvement, electronics, travel and entertainment).”
  • The homeownership rate declined 0.4%-pt in the fourth quarter to 63.9%, the lowest since 1994. The late 1990s and early 2000s run-up in the homeownership rate has now been fully undone. However, the number of households increased by 1.337 million last quarter, the most since early 1981.

Upcoming:

  • Mon: China PMI, Australia PMI, Japan PMI, EU PMI Revisions, US Personal Income, Core PCE, Canada PMI, US ISM, Australia Trade Balance, Building Approvals, RBA,
  • Tue: EU PPI, New Zealand Unemployment, Wheeler Speaks, Japan PMI
  • Wed: EU Services PMI, US ADP Employment, Non-Mfg ISM, Australia Retail Sales
  • Thu: BoE, US Unit Labor Costs, Jobless Claims,
  • Fri: US Employment, Canada Employment
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