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Commentary:
Interesting links and charts:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/01/16/2090862/the-one-chart-bull-case-for-us-stocks/
The UMichigan survey has a question about expectations for real household income. That is in white below, charted against hourly earnings growth in orange:
Notable:
- ECB QE Headlines:
- QE SIZE, IF DECIDED, COULD BE BETWEEN E700B AND E800B – MNSI
- #DRAGHI PRESENTED QE PLAN TO SCHAEUBLE, MERKEL – #SPIEGEL
- *ECB TO SET 20%-25% PURCHASE LIMIT FOR COUNTRIES’ DEBT: SPIEGEL #ECB #QE PLANS SEE NATIONAL CENTRAL BANKS BUYING OWN-COUNTRY DEBT
- US headline CPI slowed to 0.8% YoY vs 0.7% exp and 1.3% prev. The Core measure declined to 1.6% vs 1.7% exp and prev
- U Michigan Sentiment jumped to 98.2 vs 94.1 exp and 93.6 prev
- Reuters said the mid-15 hike from the Fed is still intact based on interviews with senior Fed officials and advisors. They note the tightening process after the initial move will probably be slow and dependent on market behavior.
- Former Fed governor Jeremy Stein spoke to the Journal and no longer thinks the Fed will hike rates in June. “I would have guessed June up until this past week.” Stein said that Fed officials watch market expectations carefully and the falling perceived odds of a June liftoff could prompt them to defer action.
- The ECB’s Coeure on QE: “For it to be efficient, it has to be big. How big is enough? This has to be an informed decision based on what we know about the transmission channels. We will take into account the American and British experiences to determine the amount of bonds to buy.”
Upcoming:
- Mon: US Holiday, NZ House Prices, China Retail Sales, IP, GDP
- Tue: German ZEW, US NAHB Housing Survey,
- Wed: UK Employment, US Housing Starts, BoC, NZ PMI
- Thu: US Jobless Claims, ECB, EU Consumer Confidence, DOE Oil Inventories, Japan PMI, China HSBC PMI
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