Recap 2015-01-11: NFIB survey suggests wage growth is accelerating

Commentary:

Here’s another sign that the nominal earnings print last week may be anomalous. The NFIB (i.e. small business) survey has a question that tracks compensation plans. That time series is plotted in white below vs the old measure of US hourly earnings. (the new measure does start until much later) As the chart shows, the survey series leads the earnings data, and is now back to levels not seen since 2007:

There is also a survey question asking respondents if they have trouble filling positions. The percentage answering affirmative is also quite high, and remains at levels last seen in 2006 & 2007:

This is something that is also reflected in the BLS JOLTS data, which shows that job openings are now at the highest level since January 2001:

Notable:

  • UK CPI declined to 0.5% YoY vs 0.7% exp and 1.0% prev. The Core measure improved to 1.3% as exp vs 1.2% prev. The Core PPI Measure declined to 0.8% vs 1.2% exp and 1.4% prev, although the prior print was revised down to 0.9%
  • US NFIB Survey jumped to 100.4 vs 98.5 exp and 98.1 prev, the highest print since October 2006.
  • Japan Eco Outlook Survey improved to 46.7 vs 44 prev
  • China Trade Bal declined to 49.6Bn as exp vs 55.5bn prev. Both export and import growth surprised to the upside.
  • An analysis being published Tuesday of borrowers who purchased a home in 2013 found that 47% of those surveyed seriously considered only one mortgage lender. – WSJ

Upcoming:

  • Wed: French CPI, US Retail Sales, Oil Inventories, Japan Machine Orders, UK RICS House Prices, AU Employment
  • Thu: US Empire Manufacturing, Core PPI, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed
  • Fri: US CPI, U Michigan Sentiment, Williams speaks
  • Mon: US Holiday, NZ House Prices, China Retail Sales, IP, GDP
  • Tue: German ZEW, US NAHB Housing Survey,
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