Recap 2014-12-05: A few charts


US 2y yields hit a new high this week:

Brent Crude Oil is down at a key pivot level:

And for folks intending to overweight European equities vs the US, this is the long term trend they’re betting against:


  • US Employment:
  1. Payrolls jumped 321k vs 230k exp. Revisions added 44k to previous figures
  2. Unemployment was stable at 5.8% as exp, as household employment and the participation rate were both unchanged. The Underemployment rate ticked down to 11.4% vs 11.5% prev
  3. Average Hourly earnings rose 0.4% MoM vs 0.2% exp, but the YoY figure was inline at 2.1% vs 2.0% prev

Canada Employment declined -10.7k vs 0k exp. Unemployment ticked up to 6.6% as exp vs 6.5% prev as the participation rate was unchanged.

EU 3Q GDP rose 0.2% QoQ and 0.8% YoY as exp.


  • Mon: Japan Current Account, China Trade Balance, Japan Eco Watchers Survey, Canada Housing Starts, Australia NAB Business Confidence
  • Tue: US NFIB, Australia Home Loans, China CPI
  • Wed: RBNZ, Japan Machine Orders, UK RICS House Price Balance, AU Employment
  • Thu: US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, New Zealand PMI

2 thoughts on “Recap 2014-12-05: A few charts

  1. If I were inclined to play devil’s advocate on SX5E/SPX, I’d acknowledge the sheer inexorability of he trend, but point out that if one were sufficiently mulish as to look for a reversal, the start of ECB QE coinciding with the end of Fed QE may be a reasonable point in time to try to make a stand.

    1. I agree, actually. I think the ex-ante probability of SX5E outperformance in 2015 is the highest in almost a decade. By no means am I suggesting that one should short it. But I do think that the prospects of *significant* outperformance is low, that’s all.

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