Recap 2014-11-20



Because you probably haven’t seen enough 2015 outlook pieces (just kidding) I’m working on my own version. (not kidding) Stay tuned.


  • PMIs:
  1. EU Mfg PMI declined to 50.4 vs 50.8 exp and 50.6 prev.
  2. EU Services PMI declined to 51.3 vs 52.4 exp and 52.3 prev. German weakness was only partially offset by French strength
  3. US Markit Mfg PMI declined to 54.7 vs 56.3 3xp and 55.9 prev
  4. Philly Fed jumped to 40.8 vs 18.5 exp and 20.7 prev. This was the highest print since 1993.
  5. Japan PMI declined to 52.1 vs 52.7 expand 52.4 prev
  6. China HSBC PMI declined to 50.0 vs 50.2 expand 50.4 prev

US CPI was stable at 1.7% vs 1.6% exp, but Core CPI ticked higher to 1.8% vs 1.7% exp and prev

Existing Home Sales rose 1.5% MoM vs -0.4% exp

EU Consumer Confidence declined to -11.6 vs -10.7 exp and -11.1 prev. This was the weakest print since Februrary


  • Fri: Canada CPI
  • Mon: German IFO, US Markit Services PMI, BoJ Minutes, BoJ Deputy Governor Nakaso speaks
  • Tue: Canada Retail Sales, US House Prices, Consumer Confidence
  • Wed: UK 3Q GDP, US Durable Goods Orders, Us Jobless Claims, Personal Income, Core PCE, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, AU 3Q Capex
  • Thu: US Holiday, German Employment, Consumer Confidence, Japan Employment, CPI, NZ Business Confidence, UK Consumer Confidence

4 thoughts on “Recap 2014-11-20

  1. Looking forward to your 2015 outlook!

    The sell-side annual outlooks (unsurprisingly & understandably) tend to highlight the main consensus themes/views in the market. Wonder if there’ll be any big consensus themes that fall flat next year, like broad USD appreciation in 2013 or higher UST yields this year.

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