Recap 2014-11-14

Commentary:

None

Notable:

  • EU GDP rose 0.2% QoQ vs 0.1% exp. France figures were notably better than expected.
  • US Retail Sales were strong, with headline rising 0.3% and the control group rising 0.5%, both a bit better than expected.
  • UMichigan Confidence improved to 89.4 vs 87.5 exp and 86.9 prev
  • China M2 dropped to 12.6% YoY vs 12.9% exp and prev
  • Abe looks set to delay the consumption tax hike. In an attempt to weaken Abe’s stance in front of snap elections, the DPJ party said they agree to the policy on shelving taxes. Nikkei: Abe reportedly told a senior government official that he was "basically moving toward putting off" raising the tax from 8% to 10% and would decide as soon as the start of next week… The prime minister is reportedly ready to dissolve the lower house as early as Wednesday, setting in motion a general election next month… the Ministry of Finance has recommended delaying only a decision on the move. But this proposal looks unlikely to be taken up. Abe will meet soon with Finance Minister Taro Aso to explain his thinking on the issue. Since an open-ended delay would stoke concerns about Japan’s commitment to righting its public finances, the Abe government would seek to specify a new date for raising the tax. It would also seek to remove a clause that makes the increase contingent on prevailing economic conditions. Waiting a year and a half would push the tax hike to April, when the government and most businesses start their fiscal year, thus minimizing the administrative burden that the rate increase will entail

Upcoming:

  • Mon: JapanGDP, UK House Prices, US Empire Mfg, Canada Existing Home Sales, RBA Minutes
  • Tue: UK CPI, German ZEW, US PPI, NAHB Survey
  • Wed: BoE Minutes, US Housing Starts, Fed Minutes, Japan Trade Balance, PMI, China HSBC PMI
  • Thu: EU PMI, US CPI, Jobless Claims, Markit PMI, Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales, EU Consumer Confidence
  • Fri: Canada CPI
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