Recap 2014-11-12

Commentary:

Very interesting stuff:

http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2014/11/11/draghis-ecb-management-the-leaked-geithner-files/

Notable:

  • BoE Inflation Report: The BOE cut its forecasts for growth and inflation and signaled that it was unlikely to hike rates until the second half of 2015. The BOE said in its quarterly inflation report it expects annual consumer-price inflation will be close to its 2% target at the end of 2017 provided interest rates rise in line with expectations in financial markets. “Inflation is more likely than not to fall temporarily below 1% at some point over the next six months.”
  • UK Employment 3m/3m +112k versus +125k expected. The ILO unemployment rate was unchanged at 6% versus 5.9% expected. Jobless claims declined by 20.4k, inline with expectations.
  • According to the WSJ, Abe will wait to see Q3 GDP numbers (due out this Sun night/Mon morning) and if the figure is below 2% he will move forward and delay the consumption tax hike. A delay would trigger elections as the PM would need to seek public support for the change in fiscal policy. The Journal says Abe will run an election campaign emphasizing growth over fiscal austerity.

Upcoming:

  • Thu: China Retail Sales, IP, France CPI, Dudley Speaks, US Jobless Claims, Oil DoE Inventories
  • Fri: EU GDP, CPI, US Retail Sales, UMichigan Confidence, Fed/ECB event
  • Mon: JapanGDP, UK House Prices, US Empire Mfg, Canada Existing Home Sales, RBA Minutes
  • Tue: UK CPI, German ZEW, US PPI, NAHB Survey
  • Wed: BoE Minutes, US Housing Starts, Japan Trade Balance, PMI, China HSBC PMI
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