Recap 2014-09-08

Commentary:

Good post by Macro Man on the Scottish Referendum:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2014/09/sweating-scotland.html

Very good article on why the Democrats can’t win the House. Note that in 1996, 38% of counties were competitive. In the 2012 presidential election, only 18% of counties were. Yikes

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/upshot/why-democrats-cant-win.html

Finally, via Bloomberg (h/t Ritholtz) how many of these data breaches were you aware of?

Notable:

  • China Trade Balance was strong, printing 49.8bn vs 40bn exp. Exports were a bit stronger, but Imports were much weaker, falling -2.4% vs +3.0% exp.
  • Japan Eco Watchers Outlook Survey declined to 50.4 vs 51.5 prev
  • Canada Building Permits jumped 11.8% vs -5.0% exp and 13.5% prev
  • Scottish independence poll shows separatist lead for first time this year, less than two weeks before vote. "Yes" to independence got 51%. The UK gov’t is “scrambling” to respond to the opinion polls and is making a range of promises should Scotland decide to stay within the UK. British finance minister George Osborne said on Sunday that plans would be set out in the coming days to give Scotland more autonomy on tax, spending and welfare
  • The EU has said the sanctions, targeting more Russian individuals, will come in on Monday but could be suspended if Russia withdraws troops from east Ukraine and continues to observe the current truce agreed in Minsk.
  • Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since June 2013, amid a slowdown for imports into China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer.

Upcoming:

  • Mon: BoJ Minutes, Australia Business Confidence, Home Loans
  • Tue: Canada Housing Starts, Japan Machine Orders
  • Wed: RBNZ, AU Employment
  • Thu: FranceCPI, US Jobless Claims, USDA WASDE reports, NZ PMI
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