Recap 2014-07-28

Commentary:

As others have pointed out, Chinese equities (many Asian indices actually) are breaking out. The Shanghai composite has just broken its multi-year downtrend line, but note that also happened at the end of 2012:

Price action of the Hang Seng index looks a bit better:

Note that we got a small rally in China-linked indices the last time the CNY weakened in 2012 as well. So we shouldn’t be too surprised if the rally continues. But given the return of lower USDCNY fixes, the rally may be on borrowed time:

NYC & Long Island is one of the unhappiest places in America, on par with Detroit, most of Indian and Kentucky, and Pennsylvanian coal country.

http://www.vox.com/2014/7/24/5931565/map-the-happiest-places-in-america

Interesting: do new phone releases really make phones slower? A good take on the use of data:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/27/upshot/hold-the-phone-a-big-data-conundrum.html?rref=upshot&smid=tw-upshotnyt

Notable:

  • US Pending Home Sales declined 1.1% MoM vs +0.5% exp and +6.1% prev
  • Dollar Tree to acquire Family Dollar for $74.50/share $59.60 in cash and $14.90 shares, 22.8% prem to Friday’s close
  • EU may impose its strongest sanctions yet over Russia’s involvement in Ukraine including a ban of European purchases of bonds or shares sold by Russian state-owned banks. Russian equities down 2.5%. Washington also published images purporting to show artillery being fired from inside Russia into Ukraine. Russia for its part hasn’t backed down and actually is ramping its aid to separatist forces. Though Ukraine’s military has made impressive and important progress in recapturing control of rebel strongholds and may soon launch an offensive against Donetsk (the self-described “capital” of the Ukraine separatists).
  • Former majority owners of Yukos Oil Co. won a landmark $50 billion award against Russia for the confiscation of what was once the nation’s largest oil company after a decade-long battle.
  • The Ukraine military was making gains in its battle to retake Horlivka and is preparing to advance next to the separatist stronghold of Donetsk. On Friday the military said it regained control of the separatist stronghold of Lysychansk after several days of fierce fighting
  • China’s Bank of Communications jumped as much as ~10% after Reuters reported that the lender wants to sell more stakes to private investors. The co has applied to become the first state-controlled lender to pilot so-called hybrid ownership. Bloomberg

Upcoming:

  • Mon: JapanUnemployment, Australia New Home Sales, UK House Prices
  • Tue: US Consumer Confidence, NZ Building Permits
  • Wed: France Consumer Confidence, GermanyCPI, US ADP, FOMC, UK GfK Consumer Confidence, AustraliaBuilding Approvals
  • Thu: Month End, Japan Housing Starts, EU Unemployment, CPI, US Jobless Claims, Chicago CPI, Australia PMI, China PMI,
  • Fri: EU PMI, US Employment, ISM
  • Mon: China Non-Mfg PMI, Australia Retail Sales, Turkey Inflation, EU PPI, AU Services PMI, Trade Balance
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