Recap 2014-07-18: Topical Charts

Commentary:

US 2s30s continues to flatten. Support is another 20bps away:

However, the belly of the curve has actually been stable, meaning that the wings have been pivoting. The triangle formation closes in December, which points to a late 3Q breakout:

The story is quite different across the pond. Bund yields are now at the lows from mid 2012 and 2013, and momentum remains strong:

1.35 is a reasonably strong support level on the EUR and bears watching:

Brent has bounced nicely off the 105 level I highlighted before:

After a strong 1H rally, USDCNY looks like it may continue to trend lower:

EEM is near resistance levels stretching back to 2012:

Notable:

  • Canada Core CPI ticked higher to 1.8% vs 1.7% exp and prev
  • UMichigan Confidence declined to 81.3 vs 83 exp and 82.5 prev
  • Amazon starts a $9.99 per month service for unlimited Kindle downloads. h/t Jordan
  • New home pricing in China declined in 55 cities, which is 78.6% of those tracked posting declines. This is this highest level of broad based declines since the index started in January 2011
  • UK banks – the government’s competition watchdog said it would launch an inquiry into the banking industry’s services for small business customers; the review could prompt some of the country’s big banks to be broken up – Reuters

Upcoming:

  • Mon: NZ Credit Card Spending
  • Tue: US CPI, FHFA House Prices, Existing home Sales, AU CPI
  • Wed: BoE Minutes, EU Consumer Confidence, RBNZ, NZ Trade Balance, Japan Trade Balance, PMI, China HSBC Mfg PMI
  • Thu: EU PMI, UK Retail Sales, Italy Consumer Confidence, US Jobless Claims, US Markit Mfg PMI, New Home Sales, Japan CPI, NZ Business Confidence
  • Fri: GfK Consumer Confidence, IFO, Turkey Trade Balance, US DGO
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