Recap :


Following up on yesterday’s comment on yields, it’s decision time for treasuries, with the belly at key resistance levels. After today’s ADP print people are expecting a strong NFP print on Friday. The BBG Median of 200k may tick higher by Friday. The last two times we’ve tested these levels were interestingly also around a quarter end. We will know by Friday whether the third time’s the charm.

Separately, the US is importing a lot less oil. That fact is well known… but did you know that the decrease has come almost completely at the expense of Africa? (h/t FTA)


  • EU PPI declined to -1.7% YoY in Feb vs -1.6% exp and -1.4% prev
  • US ADP improved to 191k vs 195k exp. The previous print was also revised higher to 178k vs 139k prev.

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: Australia Retail Sales, Trade Balance, China PMI
  • Thu: EU PMI, ECB, US Jobless Claims, Markit PMI, ISM Non-Mfg
  • Fri: US Employment, Canada Employment,
  • Mon: BoC Business Outlook Survey, Australia NAB Business Confidence, Japan Eco Watchers Survey
  • Tue: Canada Housing Starts,