Recap 3-12-14



  • The ECB’s Constancio said the market misinterpreted the message from the ECB last week. "All the messages were not taken in completely" as "the forward guidance was made more precise". Mr Constancio also stressed that the ECB has "tools on the table that we consider as available to use if the need arises. And that includes cuts in rates or QE or asset purchases". Are they worried over the decline in forward inflation?
  • Carney said that spare capacity could be slightly above the MPC’s 1.0-1.5% estimate, given the rise in the unemployment rate to 7.2% in the latest labour market release. He added that his own estimate of the medium-term equilibrium unemployment rate was 6% or slightly lower.
  • The US will release a new GDP report quarterly starting next morning that will break out growth by industry starting from the first quarter of 2005 through the end of 2013.
  • Crimean voters won’t be able to actually vote "no" this Sunday. According to Reuters, the first question will ask: "Are you in favor of the reunification of Crimea with Russia as a part of the Russian Federation?". The second asks: "Are you in favor of restoring the 1992 Constitution and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine?". At first glance, the second option seems to offer the prospects of the peninsula remaining within Ukraine. But the 1992 national blueprint is far from doing that and would give Crimea all the qualities of an independent entity within Ukraine – but with the broad right to determine its own path and choose relations with whom it wants – including Russia

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: NZ House Sales, Turkey Current Acct, RBNZ, Japan Machine Orders, Rics House Price Balance, Australia Employment
  • Thu: China Data, US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, Fischer confirmation hearing, BoJ Minutes
  • Fri: US Core PPI, U Michigan Confidence
  • Sun: Crimea Referendum
  • Mon: US Empire Mfg, NAHB Survey,
  • Tue: German Zew, US CPI, Housing Starts, NZ Current Acct