Recap 2-28-14




  • EU CPI was stable at 0.8% vs 0.7% exp. The Core measure improved to 1.0% vs 0.8% exp and prev
  • EU Unemployment was stable in Jan at 12.0% as exp
  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence was stable in Feb at -7 as exp
  • Chicago PMI was stable at 59.8 vs 56 exp and 59.6 prev
  • Pending Home Sales was flat in Jan vs +1.8% MoM exp.
  • U Michigan Confidence was revised higher to 81.6 vs 81.2 prev
  • Canada GDP declined to -0.5% vs -0.3% exp and +0.2% prev
  • South Korea Business Mfg Survey improved to 85 vs 81 prev
  • Japan CPI was stable at 1.3% as exp. Core was stable at 0.7%
  • Japan Housing Starts declined to 12.3% YoY in Jan vs 15% exp and 18% prev
  • China intervenes in dollar yuan in size. The most in years according to one desk. Traded from 6.1230 to 6.1785 high in less than 2 hours. There are reports that the PBoC is preparing to widen the yuan’s daily trading band from 1% to 2%
  • David Miles, MPC: the UK neutral rate may be less than 3% for a long while –speech h/t FTA. Note that this is partially priced in. 5y5y Sterling Swaps trade at 3.75%, vs 4.15% for the US.

Upcoming Data:

  • Fri: China Mfg PMI
  • Sun: AustraliaMfg PMI, Japan Capital Spending, Australia New Home Sales, China Non-Mfg PMI, Markit Mfg PMI
  • Mon: EU PMI, US Personal Spending, ISM
  • Tue: Australia GDP, China HSBC Services PMI
  • Wed: EU Service PMI, US ADP, BoC, US Non-Mfg ISM, Australia Trade Balance
  • Thu: BoE, ECB, Dudley Speaks, US Jobless Claims