Recap 2-21-14

Commentary:

Another bit of evidence supporting the possibilities of a mid 90’s replay: (h/t FTA)

Also: some 2008 vintage FOMC jokes from the transcripts:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/02/21/the-2008-fomc-laugh-track-gallows-humor-at-the-federal-reserve/

Notable:

  • UK Retail Sales declined -1.5% MoM in Jan vs -1.0% exp and +2.6% prev
  • CA Retail Sales declined -1.8% MoM in Dec vs -0.4% exp and +0.6% prev
  • CA Core CPI rose to 1.4% vs 1.3% exp and prev. The Headline measure improved to 1.5% vs 1.3% exp and 1.2% prev
  • US Existing Home Sales
  • BoJ January Minutes:
  1. Regarding prices, members shared the view that the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) was around 1¼ percent and the rate of increase, excluding the direct effects of the consumption tax hike, was likely to be around 1¼ percent for some time.
  2. Most members expressed the view that the year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI was likely to follow a rising trend, … and that the rate was likely to reach around 2 percent — the price stability target — toward the latter half of the projection period through fiscal 2015

Reuters published a survey of Japanese companies in which >80% said they don’t plan on raising base wages

MPC member Martin Weale said: “I think it is very helpful if we try and explain that the most likely path for interest rates is that the first rise will come perhaps in the spring of next year. And then the path is likely to be relatively gradual.” However, he did add that rates may need to rise earlier, if average earnings rose more quickly than expected.

Opposing parties in the Ukraine signed a deal to end fighting which includes early elections, a promise by the president to form a coalition government and a promise for constitutional reforms that would limit the power of the presidency.

Upcoming Data:

  • Mon: German IFO, EU CPI,
  • Tue: Italy Consumer Confidence, US Consumer Confidence, Case-Shiller House Prices
  • Wed: UKGDP, US New Home Sales
  • Thu: EU Money Supply, Canada Current Account, US Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims
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