Recap 2-04-14


A blog post by the NY Fed yesterday was pretty interesting. A naïve extrapolation of the trends in the chart suggests that NAIRU would be hit sometime in mid 2016:


  • RBA removed its easing bias:
  1. Looking ahead, the Bank expects growth to remain below trend for a time yet and unemployment to rise further before it peaks.
  2. Inflation is expected to be somewhat higher than forecast three months ago, but still consistent with the 2–3 per cent target over the next two years.
  3. On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates.

UK PMI Construction improved to 64.6 vs 61.5 exp and 62.1 prev

House Speaker Boehner To GOP Colleagues" ‘No Sense Picking A Fight’ On Debt Hike – MNI

Kuroda on Tuesday stressed that the country will see 2 percent inflation around the latter half of fiscal 2014 through early fiscal 2015 – Reuters

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: EU Services PMI, US ADP, CanadaBuilding Permits, ISM Non-Mfg, Australia Retail Sales,
  • Thu: BoE, ECB, Canada Trade, US Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Costs, RBA Statement, China HSBC Services PMI
  • Fri: US Employment, Canada Employment,
  • Mon: Canada Housing Starts, USDA Ag report, Australia Home Loans, NAB Business Confidence
  • Tue: Japan Money Supply