Recap 1-27-14

Commentary:

NB: no updates tomorrow

I thought this post was interesting: https://www.blackrockblog.com/2013/09/25/6040-portfolio-mix/

In particular, the idea that the optimal bond weight in an equity & bond portfolio should mostly be a function of expected bond excess return makes a lot of intuitive sense:

Notable:

  • Japan posted a record annual trade deficit for 2013 of 11.5 trillion yen compared to 6.9 trillion last year.
  • German IFO improved to 110.6 vs 110 exp and 109.5 prev
  • US New Home Sales declined to 414k in Dec vs 455k exp and 464k prev
  • MS: with 31% of the S&P 500 market cap reported, aggregate earnings are tracking 4.5% ahead of expectations. (h/t Jordan)
  • BoE’s Martin Weale said “I do not feel terribly enthusiastic about a reduction [in the unemployment
    threshold for a rate hike] from 7% to 6.5%.”
  • Moody’s left it’s rating on France unchanged with the negative outlook still in place. There have been rumors of a pending downgrade throughout 2014.

Upcoming Data:

  • Mon: South KoreaMfg Survey, Australia NAB Business Confidence
  • Tue: France Consumer Confidence, Italy Cons. Conf, US Durable Goods Orders, US Consumer Confidence
  • Wed: EU Money Supply, Carney Speaks, FOMC
  • Thu: GermanyCPI, US Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Japan PMI, CPI
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