Recap 12-13-13


Some random comments:

  • Some people are saying that Fischer is a hawk because he doesn’t support forward guidance, but I disagree. Based on his speeches, he sounds like a pretty savvy central banker to me, and I would be surprised if he tried to rock the boat a whole lot.
  • After adjusting for taxes and the probability of multiple winners, a $425 million jackpot MegaMillions lottery ticket still has a substantially negative expected value. (I see ~50c return per $1 bet in NY. Hard to say exactly because I don’t know the number of tickets sold)
  • A Chinese landing craft is expected to descent on the surface of the moon TOMORROW. It is already in lunar orbit.
  • Pretty awesome chart from Asymco showing the evolution of US auto market share. Foreign makers continue to make headway, although this seems predominantly driven by Korean firms.


  • US Core PPI declined to 1.3% YoY vs 1.4% exp and prev:

  • As expected, the House passed the budget plan proposed by Murray and Ryan. Ryan said Republican support wound up being larger than anticipated.
  • House Republicans and some of the big money conservative groups are drifting apart; many conservative organizations called on House GOP members to reject the Ryan-Murray accord but 169 of them backed the measure. For the first time since regaining the majority, some of the powerful conservative organizations are losing sway w/Congressional Republicans. Politico
  • Saudi Arabia shies away from its role as swing producer – the Kingdom won’t unilaterally lower crude production and wants OPEC to make a decision that is agreed to by all its members – WSJ
  • Iran – Congress consider fresh sanctions against Iran at least for the rest of this year, buying Obama time to negotiate a complete nuclear settlement w/Tehran – WSJ

Upcoming Data:

  • Mon: Japan Tankan, China Flash Mfg PMI, EU PMI, US Empire Mfg, Prelim PMI
  • Tue: UK PMI, GermanyZew, US CPI, NAHB Housing Index, Japan Trade Balance
  • Wed: German IFO, MPC Minutes, UK Jobless Claims, US Housing Starts, FOMC, RBA FX Transactions
  • Thu: UK Retail Sales, US Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales, GfK Consumer Confidence