Recap 12-06-13

Commentary:

This chart from Blaine Rollins via Riholtz was interesting. Apparently when the S&P is up, it is up in the double digits ~3 / 4th of the time, and up > 20% for every 1 year in 3.

Notable:

  • US Employment:
  1. Payrolls rose to 203k vs 185k exp and 204k prev. 203 is probably close to the whisper number given ADP yesterday but:
  2. Unemployment dropped to 7.0% vs 7.2% exp and 7.3% prev. The participation rate actually increased to 63.0% vs 62.8% prev as household employment surged 818k. Remember this summer when Bernanke said at the June FOMC press conference “when asset purchases ultimately come to an end, the unemployment rate would likely be in the vicinity of 7%?Good times.
  3. Hourly earnings were inline at 2.0% YoY, as were weekly hours.

US Core PCE Deflator declined to 1.1% YoY as exp vs 1.2% prev

UMichigan Consumer Confidence improved to 82.5 vs 76 exp

Canada Employment rose 21.6k vs 12k exp and 31.2k prev. The Unemployment rate was stable at 6.9% as exp.

The head of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund’s advisory panel said JGBs should be 52% of fund assets down from 58% today. “GPIF needs to start reducing bonds as soon as possible. Now is the right time to sell, while the BOJ is buying.” Dealers saw selling of JGB’s to buy US Treasuries after the comments.

Upcoming Data:

  • Weekend : China Trade Balance
  • Mon : Japan Current Account, Eco Watchers Survey, China CPI, Canada Housing Starts, UK RICS House Prices Bal, AU Home Loans, Business Confidence
  • Tue: China IP, Retail Sales, UK IP, USDA Ag report, Japan Machine Orders
  • Wed: Germany CPI, Australia Employment
  • Thu: US Jobless Claims, Retail Sales
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