Recap 11-12-13 : BAML Survey Charts


Some charts from BAML’s Fund Manager Survey below. Note the first two charts below:

My takeaways:

  • People think stocks are rich and so are not investing and/or underinvested. (Note again that I think stocks are cheap)
  • The cash indicator, however, may simply be fixed income investors waiting for tapering to commence before re-investing, so BAML’s cash indicator may be a bit less useful this time around
  • Optimism in both Small caps and Europe remain high

Also, this is interesting: (from GS)

EU Commission to look into German trade surplus. According to news reports, EU Commissioner Rehn will suggest this Wednesday the start an official review of the record high German trade surplus. Under the new macro economic imbalances supervision the EU Commission can start an investigation and demand correcting measures once the trade surplus has been deemed "excessive", meaning that it has been above 6% of GDP in three consecutive years.

“Suggesting” a “start” of an “official review” is quite different from promising any sort of action, but is certainly a positive step with respect to a better understanding by policy makers of the reasons behind the EU’s malaise.


  • China Data
  1. China M2 rose 14.3% YoY vs 14.2% exp and prev
  2. IP YoY: +10.3% vs 10.0% exp and 10.2% prev
  3. Retail Sales YoY: 13.3% YoY vs 13.4% exp

Japan Current Account improved to 587bn vs 401bn exp and 162bn prev

Japan Eco Watchers Survey improved to 54.5 vs 54.2 prev

Japan M2 Money Supply rose 4.1% vs 3.9% exp and 3.8% prev

Australia NAB Business Confidence declined to 5 vs 12 prev

Australia Home Loans rose 4.4% in Sept vs 3.5% exp and -3.9% prev

UK RICS House Price balance jumped to 57 vs 54 prev, the highest level since June 2002. The gap between demand and supply has reached its highest since May 2009, driving price expectations higher. New buyer enquiries are significantly outpacing new instructions to sell, and excess demand is now a feature of every part of the country.

UK CPI declined to 2.2% YoY in Oct vs 2.5% exp and 2.7% prev. The core measure declined to 1.7% vs 2.0% exp and 2.2% prev

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: UK Employment, BoE Inflation Report,
  • Thu: ChinaData, France GDP, CPI, UK Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, Yellen Confirmation Testimony
  • Fri: US Empire Mfg
  • Mon: NAHB Housing Market Index, RBA Minutes
  • Tue: German ZEW,