Recap 10-29-13




  • Household consumption in Japan was +3.7% versus +0.5%. Retail sales were +1.8% m/m versus +0.5% expected. JPM said the strength in September is inline with our view that front-loaded demand ahead of the consumption tax hike in April 2014 will support consumption in the next two quarters.
  • US Retail Sales declined -0.1% in Sept vs 0.0% exp. The Control group rose 0.5% vs 0.4% exp.
  • Consumer Confidence declined to 71.2 in Oct vs 75 exp and 80.2 prev
  • The RBA’s Glenn Stevens: “These levels of the exchange rates are not supported by Australia’s relative levels of costs and productivity. Moreover, the terms of trade are likely to fall, not rise, from here. So it seems quite likely that at some point in the future the Australian dollar will be materially lower than it is today.”

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: US ADP Employment, CPI, FOMC, JapanPMI, UK GfK Consumer Confidence, Australia New Home Sales, Building Approvals
  • Thu: Month End, BoJ, Japan Housing Starts, EU Unemployment, CPI, Canada GDP, US Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI, AU PMI, China PMI
  • Fri: US ISM, Vehicle Sales
  • Mon: China Non-Mfg PMI, AU Retail Sales, House Prices, EU PMI, China Services PMI, RBA,
  • Tue : UK PMI Services, ISM Non-Mfg,