Recap 10-02-13




  • Australia Trade Balance declined to -815mm vs -400m exp and -765m prev, which was revised to -1375 due to a methodology change
  • Building Approvals growth declined to 7.7% vs 12.8% exp and 28.3% prev
  • ECB kept policy unchanged as exp.
  • US ADP Employment declined to 166k vs 176k exp and 180k prev. The previous month’s figure was revised lower to 159k.
  • Yesterday, US Vehicle Sales declined to 14.21mm in Sept vs 15.6 exp and 16.02 prev
  • A harsh reality is dawning on Washington: the government won’t re-open until both sides have a deal to raise the debt ceiling. “House Republican leaders and top Senate Democrats privately began discussing this increasingly likely possibility Tuesday, but the two sides have yet to engage in any direct negotiations in the acrimonious budget dispute”. Both sides are preparing for a “protracted” budget battle. Politico
  • JPM: We estimate that each week the government is shut down will shave about 0.12% off the quarterly annualized growth rate of real GDP.
  • A Quinnipiac poll (September 23-29) shows 49% of Republicans support a shutdown as a means of blocking Obamacare implementation, with 44% against

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: China Non-Mfg PMI
  • Thu: Europe PMIs, US Jobless Claims, ISM Non-Mfg, China Markit Services PMI
  • Fri: BoJ, US Employment (unlikely though)
  • Mon: RICS House Price Balance, Australia NAB Business Confidence, China HSBC Service PMI
  • Tue: German Trade Balance, Canada Housing Starts,