Recap 10-01-13




  • PMI Prints:
  1. China Mfg PMI improved to 51.1 vs 51.6 exp and 51 prev
  2. UK Mfg PMI declined to 56.7 vs 57.5 exp and 57.2 prev
  3. Italy Mfg PMI declined to 50.8 vs 51.1 exp and 51.3 prev
  4. US ISM improved to 56.2 vs 55 exp and prev

EU Unemployment declined to 12.0% vs 12.1% exp and 12.1% prev. The number of unemployed declined -11k from June-Aug.

RBA kept policy rates unchanged as exp. Sounds like they will be on hold for the foreseeable future:

  1. The easing in monetary policy since late 2011 has supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values. The full effects of these decisions are still coming through, and will be for a while yet. The pace of borrowing has remained relatively subdued to date, though recently there have been signs of increased demand for finance by households. There is also continuing evidence of a shift in savers’ behavior in response to declining returns on low-risk assets.
  2. At today’s meeting, the Board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.

Australia Retail Sales rose 0.4% MoM vs 0.3% exp and 0.1% prev

Japan increased the consumption tax to 8% from 5%, starting April 1st. To offset a $50bn stimulus plan was announced but details were vague.

European banks need to stop being encouraged to buy government debt according to Jens Weidmann in an FT oped

NYT: Iranian Economy is hurting badly and could be a few months from collapse

Upcoming Data:

  • Tue: JapanMoney Supply, Australia Trade Balance, Building Approvals
  • Wed: ECB, US ADP Employment, China Non-Mfg PMI
  • Thu: Europe PMIs, US Jobless Claims, ISM Non-Mfg, China Markit Services PMI
  • Fri: BoJ, US Employment (unlikely though)
  • Mon: RICS House Price Balance, Australia NAB Business Confidence, China HSBC Service PMI
  • Tue: German Trade Balance, Canada Housing Starts,