Recap 9-23-13

Commentary:

So the consensus seems to be that a government shutdown at the end of this month is low. However, the current bill sitting in the Senate only provides enough money until Dec 15th. The battle then could be the bigger risk. Per Jefferies: During the partial government shutdown that lasted from December 16, 1995 to January 6, 1996, the employment report release was delayed until Tuesday, January 16th (originally scheduled for Friday, January 5th)

<rant>

OK, I am really tired of hearing that both Democrats and Republicans are responsible for this mess. There are essentially 3 voting blocs in the House: the Democrats, the Moderate Republicans, and the Tea Partiers, representing something like 40%, 50%, and 10% of total votes, respectively. There have been claims that the House Democrats are willfully resistant to compromise to pin the blame on Republicans, which probably has some truth in it. But that’s mostly noise – in any rational representative democracy, the 40% and 50% blocs should compromise to get things done, not the 50% and the 10%, especially if it means whether the government shuts down or not. The House leadership’s CHOICE to do the compromising with the 10% is the cause of current problems.

In any case, as a citizen, I think we a shutdown wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing over the long run. The Tea Party states are the ones that, on net, receive money from the government. If the constituents there are so ill-informed or so apathetic that they are sending representatives who are voting for their states to receive less money, then they should get it. You can’t help people who won’t help themselves. And sometimes things have to get worse before they can get better.

</rant>

Notable:

  • China Markit Flash Mfg PMI improved to 51.2 vs 50.9 exp and 50.1 prev
  • EU Mfg PMI declined to 51.1 vs 51.7 exp and 51.4 prev.
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved to 0.14 vs -0.05 vs -0.15 prev
  • Market US Preliminary PMI declined to 52.8 vs 54 exp and 53.1 prev

Upcoming Data:

  • Tue: German IFO, Canada Retail Sales, US Home Price Index, US Consumer Confidence
  • Wed: Italy Consumer Confidence, US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales
  • Thu: France Consumer Confidence, EU Money Supply, US Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Japan CPI
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