Recap 9-12-13


One more observation on housing: Note that US home prices didn’t start picking up until early 2012, about 6 months after mortgage rates broke well below 4.5%. The chart below shows the YoY change in the Case-Shiller 20 city house index in orange, and the 30y mortgage rate in white and inverted. As the chart shows, mortgage rates are now back to the 4.5% level in mid 2011, and home prices are roughly between 13%-25% higher, depending on what index you use.


  • Australia Employment declined -10.8k in Aug vs +10k exp and -10.2k prev. The Unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.8% as exp vs 5.7% prev as the participation rate ticked lower to 65.0% vs 65.2% exp and 65.1% prev
  • US Jobless Claims dropped to 292k vs 330k exp due to technical problems in 2 states which prevented them from reporting data this week.
  • RBNZ left policy rates unchanged as exp, but Wheeler was explicit about the need for hikes in 2014.

Upcoming Data:

  • Fri: US Retail Sales, UMichigan Confidence
  • Mon: US Empire Mfg, Canada Existing Home Sales
  • Tue: UK Inflation, German Zew, EU Trade Balance, US NAHB Survey, TIC flows