Recap 8-29-13

Commentary:

This table from Citi shows the results of a client positioning survey in US treasuries, broken up by client type.

Notable:

  • Australia Private CapEx for 2Q rose 4.0% QoQ vs 0% exp and -4.7% prev. 2013/14 expenditure estimate rose slightly to 159bn from 156bn.
  • US Jobless Claims declined to 331k last week vs 332k exp and 336k prev
  • US 2Q GDP was revised to 2.5% SAAR from 1.7% prev, driven by net exports and inventories
  • Hilsenrath: Yellen starts backing away
  • EM:
  1. India opened FX swap lines with the three largest public sector oil companies. The move is expected to reduce dollar demand by ~$8bn per month. The rupee is 3.25% stronger this morning. India’s trade minister said the RBI should consider selling its gold holdings.
  2. Indonesia hiked rates during an unscheduled meeting Thursday morning by 50 basis points to 7%.
  3. Brazil hiked rates by 50bps as expected. JPM increased their forecast for the terminal selic rate to 9.75% from 9.25%. President Rousseff on the move in FX: "It does not affect the Brazilian economy as much as other economies… It is obvious than it does have some impact, but we have our dollar reserves.”

Upcoming Data:

  • Thu: Japan Mfg PMI, Jobless Rate, CPI, IP, Australia Private Sector Credit
  • Fri: Month End, Japan Housing Starts, UK Nationwide House Prices, Italy Unemployment, EU Unemployment, CPI
  • Mon: US holiday, China Mfg PMI, AU Mfg PMI, AU Building Approvals, EU PMI, China Non-Mfg PMI, Australia Current Acct, Retail Sales
  • Tue: RBA, US ISM, AU GDP
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