Recap 8-20-13




  • RBA minutes:
  1. Employment growth was continuing, but at a pace below the rate of growth of the labour force, and unemployment had tended to rise. Wages growth was slowing.
  2. The revised staff forecasts were for below trend output growth over the coming year or so, before growth was expected to pick up partly because of the effects of the recent exchange rate depreciation.
  3. At recent meetings the Board had held the cash rate steady, but had judged that the inflation outlook might afford some scope to ease policy further, should that be necessary to support demand. The forecasts for this meeting suggested no lessening of that scope, but did show a weaker outlook for activity overall. The course of the exchange rate would be important. It had declined since the previous meeting, though remained high by historical standards.
  4. Regarding communication of this decision, members agreed that the Bank should neither close off the possibility of reducing rates further, nor signal an imminent intention to reduce rates further. The Board would continue to examine the data over the months ahead to judge whether monetary policy was appropriately configured.

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: US Existing home Sales, FOMC Minutes, China HSBC Mfg Flash PMI
  • Thu: EU PMI, US Jobless Claims, CA Retail Sales, US Markit Prelim PMI
  • Fri: UK 2Q GDP, Canada CPI, EU Consume Confidence, US New Home Sales