- Canada Employment dropped -39.4k in July vs +1-k exp and -0.4k prev. Unemployment rose to only 7.2% vs 7.1% exp and prev as the participation rat dropped to 66.5vs 66.7.
- RBA Statement on Monetary Policy:
- GDP forecast lower by 0.25% to 2.25% for the year. “GDP growth is now expected to remain below trend through to around the middle of next year, before picking up to above trend in 2015.”
- Employment growth is expected to be only modest over the next few quarters, consistent with the below-trend growth of the economy. This will see the unemployment rate increase gradually for a year or so.
- Overall, the forecast for inflation is broadly unchanged from that in the May Statement
- At its recent meetings the Board had noted that the inflation outlook would afford some scope to ease policy further, if needed to support demand. The recent price and wage data do not suggest any lessening of that scope from an inflation point of view, and the expectation is for inflation to be consistent with the target even with the effect of the depreciation. At the same time, indicators of demand have generally been a little soft of late, and the outlook for activity has been lowered, with growth expected to remain below trend for a time.
- Fun Charts:
- China Data:
- M2 growth rose to 14.5% vs 13.9% exp and 14.0% prev
- CPI: stable at 2.7% vs 2.8% exp
- IP jumped to 9.7% vs 8.9% exp and prev
- Retail Sales growth declined to 13.2% vs 13.5% exp and 13.3% prev
- Anecdotals: Auto sales and bank lending all topped expectations. Importantly, electricity production (which many consider a more “honest” gauge of growth) surged 8.1% in Jul (JPM)
Japan M2 growth declined to 3.7% vs 3.8% exp and prev
- Mon: Japan 2Q GDP, US WASDE reports, US RICS House Price Balance, Japan Machine Orders, Australia NAB Business Confidence
- Tue: UK Inflation, German Zew, US Retail Sales, Australia Consumer Confidence
- Wed: France GDP, Employment, BoE Minutes, UK Unemployment,
- Thu: UK Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, CPI, NAHB Survey, Philly Fed
- Fri: US Labor Costs, Housing Starts