Recap 7-17-13


Some interesting charts from the BAML Fund Manager Survey:

Cash balances are high, which has historically coincided with equities upside:

EM equity underweight at extremes:

A record number of respondents like being long USD vs JPY:


  • Bernanke didn’t break much new ground in his Humphrey Hawkins speech with respect to the start of tapering, but the mention of deflation risks sent treasury yields 5bps lower from pre-speech levels.
  • US Housing Starts dropped to 836k in June vs 960k exp and 914k prev
  • BoE Minutes showed a 0-9 vote for QE, possibly because members anticipated using forward guidance instead.
  • BOJ minutes were published overnight and revealed that some members wanted to take incremental steps at the last meeting to help quell market volatility while at the same time communicating to markets that the overall monetary framework was appropriate to achieve the 2% inflation goal. One measure discussed would have seen the BOJ supply loans to commercial banks with a duration of more than one year. WSJ

Upcoming Data:

  • Thu: US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed
  • Fri: Canada CPI,
  • Mon: Chicago Fed, Existing Home Sales,
  • Tue: Canada Retail Sales, Japan Trade Balance, Australia CPI China HSBC Mfg PMI
  • Wed: EU PMI, US Mortgage Applications, Markit US PMI, New Home Sales,

2 thoughts on “Recap 7-17-13

  1. I should think that regardless of data readings, Bernanke will stay pretty mum about an end to QE. Like it or not, his words carry over into equity price-action

    1. Hi traderchild –
      Consensus expectations seems to be for a September start to the tapering and mid 2014 end. Barring significant economic surprises, the Sept date looks set!

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