Recap 7-15-13

~ globalmacrotrading

Commentary:

A longer term look at things:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2013/07/us-economic-ballistics.html

Notable:

  • US Core CPI declined to 1.6% YoY as exp vs 1.7% prev. The headline measure, however, ticked higher to 1.8% vs 1.4% prev
  • NAHB Housing Survey jumped to 57 in July vs 51 exp and 52 prev
  • German Zew declined to 36.3 vs 40 exp and 38.5 prev
  • UK CPI YoY rose 2.9% YoY vs 3.0% exp and 2.7% prev. UK PPI Output Core rose 1.0% YoY vs 1.1% exp and 0.8% prev
  • RBA Minutes:
  1. Recent data suggested that domestic economic activity continued to grow at a below trend pace. The outlook for both mining and non-mining business investment remained uncertain. Mining investment was likely to remain high for some quarters given the considerable volume of firmly committed work, even though it looked to be close to, if not past, its peak.
  2. The effects of lower interest rates were apparent across a range of indicators and, given the lags involved in the transmission of monetary policy, this process had further to run. The effects to date were most evident in the housing market and were expected to be apparent in further growth in dwelling investment.
  3. The most significant change had been the depreciation of the exchange rate, though members noted that it remained at a high level.
  4. Given the exchange rate adjustment that was occurring, and with the substantial degree of monetary stimulus already in place, members assess the current stance of policy to be appropriate for the time being. The Board also judged that the inflation outlook, although slightly higher because of the exchange rate depreciation, could still provide some scope for further easing, should that be required to support demand.

NYT’s Nate Silver says it is increasingly looking “50/50” – “A race-by-race analysis of the Senate suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections” – NYT

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: UK Unemployment, BoE Minutes, US Housing Starts, Bernanke Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony,
  • Thu: US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed
  • Fri: Canada CPI,

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I am a G20 Global Macro Portfolio Manager in NYC. My background includes stints at a major investment bank, a commodities market maker, and one of the world's largest global macro hedge funds.