Recap 6-25-13




  • US Durable Goods Orders printed 3.6% in May vs 3.0% exp. The Core measure was also good, rising 1.1% vs 0.5% exp.
  • Consumer Confidence jumped to 81.4 in June vs 75.1 exp and 76.2 prev, the highest print since January 2008
  • Case Shiller Home Price Index rose 1.4% MoM vs 1.2% exp
  • New Home Sales improved to 476k in May vs 460k exp and 454k prev
  • ECB’s Coeure: Let me state quite clearly that I do not intend to drop any hints about a change in the monetary policy stance in the euro area in the near future. A reversal would not be warranted by current economic conditions. Economic growth is projected to remain weak this year and inflation is expected to remain clearly below 2% for the euro area as a whole. The various non-standard measures that have been introduced by the ECB to support monetary policy transmission in certain market segments will stay in place as long as necessary, and there are other measures, standard and non-standard, that we can deploy if warranted. Therefore, at the current juncture, there should be no doubts that our “exit” is distant and our monetary policy is and will remain accommodative… The monetary policy stance of the ECB will remain accommodative for as long as needed, and we will look with an open mind at standard and non-standard monetary policy tools if warranted by the outlook for price stability. In particular, we have to ensure that our effective monetary policy stance, as measured, among other indicators also by the term structure of money market rates, remains aligned with the Governing Council’s assessment, and with the outlook for price stability.
  • The PBOC issued a brief statement on credit market conditions indicating that they remain reluctant to step in and smooth over the liquidity crunch. “Overall bank liquidity conditions are at a reasonable level” and they asked banks to “prudently manage liquidity risks that have resulted from a rapid credit expansion.”
  • Homebuilder Lennar beat the second quarter on almost all metrics. EPS of 43c vs 33c expected. Gross margins of 24.1% versus 23.4% expected. Pricing up 13% y/y at $282k per home. “Demand in all of our markets continues to outpace supply which is constrained by limited land availability and fewer competing homebuilders. At the same time, affordability remains high and despite recent interest rate increases, we have seen very little impact on sales or pricing.”

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: Mexico Trade Balance, US Oil Inventories,
  • Thu: German Unemployment, EU money supply, US Personal Income, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Dudley Speaks, Japan CPI, IP
  • Fri: Italy Business Confidence, Williams Speaks
  • Mon: Australia Mfg PMI, China PMI, EU PMI, EU CPI Estimate, Unemployment, US ISM Mfg
  • Tue: RBA, Australia Service PMI, China Non-Mfg PMI, Australia Trade Balance, Retail Sales, China HSBC Service PMI