Recap 5-13-13


Initial signs stocks are getting frothy: (h/t Riholtz)

Separately, note that Japanese M1 was not increasing yet as of April, even though Yen denominated asset prices were already pricing in substantial BoJ action:

For comparison, US M1 growth bottomed at ~4%, right before the Fed initiated additional rounds of QE:


  • WSJ’s Hilsengrath published a hawkish article on the Fed over the weekend, which drove price action over night. On balance, however, the title and article appears tilted toward the hawks, which is somewhat misleading.
  • US Retail Sales rose +0.1% MoM in Apr vs -0.3% exp and -0.4% prev. The core measure rose 0.5% vs 0.3% exp.
  • China IP rose 9.3% YoY in Apr vs 9.4% exp and 8.9% prev.
  • China Retail Sales rose 12.8% in Apr as exp vs 12.6% prev
  • China Fixed Assets Investment declined to 2.06% vs 21% exp and 20.9% prev
  • Japan M2 rose 3.3% in Apr vs 3.1% exp and 3.0% prev
  • Australia Home Loans jumped 5.2% MoM in March vs 4.0% exp and 2.0% prev
  • Australia NAB Business Confidence declined to -2 vs +2 prev

Upcoming Data:

  • Mon: Japan M2, Australia Home Loans, NAB Business Conditions, China CPI, Retail Sales, US Retail Sales
  • Tue: EU IP, German Zew,
  • Wed : Japan Consumer Confidence, UK Jobless Claims, EU 1Q GDP, BoE Inflation Report, US Empire Mfg, NAHB Housing Mkt Index, Japan 1Q GDP,
  • Thu : EU Trade Balance, US CPI, Jobless Claims, Housing Starts,
  • Fri : Canada CPI, MexicoGDP, US UMichigan Confidence,