Recap 5-01-13


Apologies for the lack of commentary recently, but the fact of the matter is, there simply hasn’t been much to talk about. There has been plenty of data, but they have all had a muted impact on asset prices globally. As I’ve noted before, the relationship between macro data and equity prices has weakened sharply. The rates market is still reacting to the data, but given the low level of yields, the reaction there has been quite muted as well. All in all, this ‘feels’ like we are in the middle of the business cycle, where few people are worried about a recession affecting asset prices, and so corrections are shallow, and volatility is low.

This is also interesting.

Interesting factoid: China accounts for about 40 percent of all global paper currency output, according to a report published by the China Banknote Printing and Minting Corporation.


  • ADP Employment decreased to 112k vs 150k exp and 158k prev
  • ISM Mfg declined to 50.7 vs 50.5 exp and 51.3 prev
  • UK Mfg PMI increased to 49.8 vs 48.5 exp and 48.6 prev
  • China Mfg PMI declined to 50.6 vs 50.7 exp and 50.9 prev

Upcoming Data:

  • Thu: Italy Mfg PMI, ECB, US Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Australia Services PMI, China Non-Mfg PMI
  • Fri: UK PMI Services, US Employment, US ISM Non-Mfg
  • Mon: Australia Retail Sales, China HSBC Services PMI, Italy Services PMI, EU Retail Sales, CanadaBuilding Permits, Au Trade Balance
  • Tues: RBA