Recap 2-19-13

Commentary:

The EIA reported that 2012 gas purchases reached just under 4% of pretax income, which is the highest level in 30 years other than 2008.

Also worth noting is that mortgage refinancing is starting to taper off. On a 13 week basis, the Refi index is now at the lowest level since last June:

Finally, tomorrow’s minutes should be interesting, especially any discussion of slowing QE…

Notable:

  • German Zew jumped to 48.2 in Feb vs 35 exp and 31.5 prev
  • US NAHB declined to 46 vs 48 exp and 47 prev
  • RBA Minutes:
  1. Growth in economic activity was expected to be a little below trend over 2013, before picking up to around trend through 2014.
  2. Interest rate sensitive parts of the economy had shown some signs of responding to these lower rates … and further effects could be expected over time.
  3. the exchange rate remained high despite the terms of trade having declined significantly since peaking about 18 months earlier.
  4. The inflation outlook, as assessed at this meeting, would afford scope to ease policy further, should that be necessary to support demand.

Chief Cabinet Secretary (key government spokesman), Suga, told high ranking officials of the ruling parties that the government intends to present a nominee for new BoJ governor and two deputy governors by the end of this month (Thursday next week)

JPM: On recent visits to HK, Singapore, Boston, New York, and Connecticut at meetings with more than 50 of our international clients, I got impression that their expectations for new BoJ policy measures in April are far higher than we are currently expecting. Our expectation is perceived by some major clients as really the minimum expected or would even come as a disappointment.

PBoC tightened liquidity for the first time in 8 months via a RMB 30bn repo

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: BoE Minutes, Fed Minutes, UK Jobless Claims, US Housing Starts
  • Thu: EU PMI, US CPI, Jobless Claims, Markit Preliminary PMI, Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales, Oil Inventories
  • Fri: German IFO, Canada CPI
  • Mon: China HSBC Flash Mfg PMI
  • Tue: US Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales
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