Recap 10-11-12

Commentary:

The chart below from Goldman illustrates why the Fed is unlikely to sharply tighten policy for a long, long time.

Goldman also notes: “our calculation suggests that debt service ratio might decline from the current 10.7% to 10.1%. This drop would make it the lowest on record since 1980.”

Notable:

  • U Michigan Consumer Sentiment jumped to 83.1 in Oct vs 78 exp and 78.3 prev. This is the highest print since Sept 2007
  • JPM earned $1.40 per share and $1.46 ex-debt value adjustments. The street was at $1.20. Expense discipline led to the most EPS upside, ($0.13/share) driven in part by a lower comp ratio. Loan balances declined. The ‘Whale” positions is now closed, with a 450mm hit this quarter. Dimon: “we believe the housing market has turned the corner.”
  • WFC earned 88c vs 87c exp. Mortgage banking fell short of high expectations and margin pressure was above guidance. Net Interest Margins dropped 25bps to 3.66%.

Upcoming Data:

  • Mon: China CPI, PPI, US Empire Mfg, Retail Sales, BoC Loan Officer Survey
  • Tues: UK CPI, German Zew, EU Trade Balance, US CPI, NAHB Housing Index
  • Wed: BoE Minutes, UK Jobless Claims, China GDP, IP, Retail Sales
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