Recap 9-24-12: Risky Week Ahead


Quadruple witching last week likely masked some equity weakness that is evident this week. (Price behavior suggested that dealers were attempting to pin the S&P future to the 1450 strike) September has historically been a bad month for stocks, and the week after option expiry is especially tough. Quantifiable Edges has a chart that shows this nicely:


  • 103 companies in the S&P have provided guidance for the third quarter. Of those, 80% have guided below expectations, making this the most negative outlook since FactSet began tracking figures in 2006.
  • The German IFO business sentiment index declined to 101.4 from 102.3, below expectations of 102.5. This is the lowest level in more than two years.

Upcoming Data:

  • Mon: German IFO, Dallas Fed
  • Tues: Canada Retail Sales, Richmond Fed
  • Wed: German CPI, South Korea PMI
  • Thu: EU Money Supply, Industrial Confidence, US DGO, Jobless Claims, Japan PMI