Recap 9-18-12


BoJ meeting tonight should be interesting. Consensus forecast is for no change. The BoJ tends to follow the Fed in easing, so they may do something, (like increase the purchase program) although it will probably be ineffective.


  • Coene was speaking yesterday and he brought out a point that might not be well known by the market. There is a clause in the ECB’s OMT stipulating that the ECB will not purchase any debt issued after the start date of the program. Only legacy debt qualifies for the program.
  • German Zew Survey of Economic Sentiment improved to -18.2 in Sept vs -20 exp and -25.5 prev. This is the first positive surprise since April.
  • US NAHB index improved to 40 in Sept vs 38 exp and 37 prev. This is the highest print since June 2006.

Upcoming Data:

  • Tues: UK CPI, German Zew, NAHB Housing Index, Dudley Speaks
  • Wed: BoJ, BoE Minutes, US Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales
  • Thu: EU PMI, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed
  • Fri: Canada CPI, Quadruple Witching
  • Mon: German IFO, Dallas Fed