Recap 9-4-12: ISM Outlook Still Tepid


The headline ISM print was roughly inline, but the inventories index was up sharply. The high inventories figure suggests that we are likely to see at least one more anemic print (as inventories get used) before a recovery.


  • US ISM declined to 49.6 vs 50 exp and 49.8 prev
  • Draghi told the EU Parliament Committee that purchases of sovereign bonds of up to 3-years by the ECB is not state aid.
  • RBA Kept Policy Unchanged as Exp
  • PMI for Aug:
  1. UK Mfg PMI jumped to 49.5 vs 46.1 exp and 45.4 prev
  2. Italy Mfg PMI dropped to 43.6 vs 45 exp and 44.3 prev
  3. Spain Mfg PMI improved to 44 vs 42.8 exp
  4. Swiss Mfg PMI dropped to 46.7 vs 49.1 exp and 48.6 prev
  5. Australia Mfg PMI improved to 45.3 vs 40.3 prev
  6. South Korea HSBC Mfg PMI improved to 47.5 vs 47.2 prev
  7. China Non-Mfg PMI improved to 56.3 vs 55.6 prev
  8. China HSBC Mfg PMI dropped to 47.6 vs 49.3 prev

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: Italy Services PMI, UK Service PMI, US Labor Costs, BoC, AU Employment
  • Thurs: ECB, BoE, French Unemployment, US ADP, Jobless Claims, ISM Non-Mfg
  • Fri: UK PPI Output Core, US Non Farm Payrolls, Canada Employment
  • Sun: China IP, Retail Sales, Trade Balance, Japan Current Account, Eco Watchers Survey
  • Mon: EU Sentix Investor Confidence, Australia NAB Business Confidence, China Money Supply
  • Tues: Canada Housing Starts, Trade Balance