Recap 6-28-12

Main Items:

  • US Initial Jobless Claims was stable last week at 385k as exp.
  • NYT reports that JPM CIO office loss may have jumped to 9bn vs 2bn previously.
  • Barclay’s was under heavy selling pressure as the FSA publicized yesterday that the bank will pay 290mm sterling to settle the Libor manipulation probe. The CEO is under pressure to resign.
  • US Supreme Court upheld the Affordable Care Act, with the exception that the federal government power to terminate states’ Medicaid funds will be limited to only new funds. The vote was 5-4, with Chief Justice Roberts the swing voter. In writing for the court, he said that Congrass had the authority to impose the insurance requirement under its power to levy taxes.
  • China’s head of the National Audit Office said that the finances of local governments are unstable and unsustainable.


  • German Unemployment increased 7k in June vs 3k exp. The Unemployment Rate increased to 6.8% vs 6.7% exp and prev on revisions.
  • EU Economic Confidence declined to 89.9 vs. cons 89.6 and 90.6 prev. This was the lowest print since 2009
  • EU Industrial Confidence declined to -12.7 in June vs -12 exp and -11.3 prev
  • Italian CPI increased to 3.6% YoY in June vs 3.4% exp and 3.5% prev

Upcoming Data:

  • Fri: EU Summit, EU Money Supply, CPI Estimate, CanadaGDP, US Personal Spending, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, UMichigan Confidence
  • Mon: ChinaMfg PMI, AustraliaMfg PMI, South Korea HSBC Mfg PMI, China HSBC Mfg PMI
  • Tues: Swiss Mfg PMI, ItalyMfg PMI, UKMfg PMI, US ISM, China Non-Mfg PMI
  • Wed: US Holiday, RBA, Australia Services PMI, China HSBC Services PMI
  • Thurs: Italy Services PMI, UK Services PMI

Commentary & Links:

Goldman notes that core DGO growth has slowed substantial over the past 12 months. The last time this occurred was in mid 2007.

Also note that Silver looks ready to move: