Recap 5-15-12

Main Items:

· Reuters reported that there is no deal on a Technocratic greek government.

· US Retail Sales rose 0.1% MoM in Apr as exp. The Control Group rose 0.4% vs 0.3% exp and 0.4% prev

· Empire Manufacturing improved to 17.09 in May vs 9 exp and 6.56 prev

· NAHB Housing Market Index improved to 29 in May vs 26 exp and 25 prev. This is the highest print since May 2007.

· US CPI rose 2.3% YoY in Apr as exp vs 2.7% prev. The core measure was unchanged at 2.3% YoY as exp

· Moody’s downgraded 26 Italian banks on Monday night. The move was expected

· RBA Minutes Highlights:

1. Recent evidence suggested that the Australian economy was growing somewhat below trend.

2. The rise in funding costs had led banks to increase their lending rates over recent months by around 10–12 basis points.

3. The staff assessment was that inflation was likely to remain in the lower half of the target range over the foreseeable future, with cost pressures expected to be contained given the forecast for moderate growth in the economy.

Overseas:

  • German ZEW Index of Economic Sentiment declined to 10.8 in May vs 19 exp and 23.4 prev
  • German GDP rose 1.2% YoY in 1Q vs 0.8% exp and 2.0% prev
  • French GDP was flat in Q1 as exp
  • EU GDP was flat YoY in 1Q vs -0.1% exp and 0.7% prev

Upcoming Data:

  • Wed: UK Claimant Count Rate, EU CPI, Swiss ZEW survey, EU Trade Balance, BoE Inflation Report, FOMC Minutes
  • Thurs: US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, LEI, China Property Prices
  • Fri: Canada CPI
  • Mon: Chicago Fed
  • Tues: UK CPI EU Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg Idx, Japan Trade Balance

Commentary:

Very Interesting: http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2012/05/surprising-conversation-with-athens.html

Worth thinking about. What if the previous reports were misleading, and we get a Greek poll showing that ND & PASOK will have enough support to form a coalition government? Or if Tsipras pulls a Howard Dean Scream moment?

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