Recap 5-7-12

Main Items:

· In Greece, the two largest parties did worse than expected. Both far left and far right parties have ~15% of the votes. If they are not able to form a coalition, new elections may be needed. Citi estimates the probability of a Greek exit above 50% over the next 12-18 months.

· Hollande beats Sarkozy in France as expected.

· The People’s Daily in China reported that ICBC told its branches to stop offering discounts on mortgages for first time home buyers


  • EU Sentix Investor Confidence dropped to -24.5 in May vs -15.3 exp and -14.7 prev
  • Swiss Unemployment was stable at 3.1% in Apr as expected
  • Swiss CPI was stable at -1.0% in Apr vs -0.9% exp.
  • Australia Real Retail Sales rose 1.8% QoQ in 1Q vs 0.4% exp and prev

Upcoming Data:

  • Tues: US NFIB Small Business Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings
  • Wed: German Trade Balance, Japan Trade Balance, Australia Employment
  • Thurs: China Trade Balance, Japan Eco watchers Survey, UK MPC, US Import Prices, Initial Jobless Claims, China CPI, Money Supply
  • Fri: China IP, Retail Sales, UK PPI, CanadaUnemployment, US PPI, U Michigan Confidence